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发表于 2024-10-16 04:19:41
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因周三美联储利率决议宣布将850亿美元每月的购债规模缩减100亿美元，至750亿美元，现货黄金纽市盘中先是下挫近20美元，并随后触底反弹至1235美元附近，整体仍小幅收高。现货黄金收涨。现货黄金上涨3.20美元，涨幅0.25%，报1233美元/盎司。
周三(12月18日)走势表述：
国际现货黄金亚太时段中持续在1229-1237.20美元间窄幅震荡。欧洲时段中，现货黄金延续此前的震荡格局。纽约时段盘初，现货黄金扩大涨幅，并刷新日内1244.20美元/盎司高位，利率决议公布后下挫近20美元，并随后触底反弹至1235美元附近，最终收于该水平附近。
现货黄金最高触及1244.20美元/盎司，最低下探1223.70美元/盎司，较上一个交易日开盘价1229.80美元/盎司上涨3.20美元，涨幅0.25%，报1233美元/盎司。
基本面利好因素：
1.周二SPDR黄金ETF持仓减少2.1公吨，至816.82公吨。
基本面利空因素：
1.周三美联储(Fed)在经过了为期两天的美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后公布了利率决议，美联储宣布将每月850亿美元的购债规模缩减100亿美元至每月750亿美元。并且公开市场委员会委员以9:1的比例通过了该决议。
2.数据编撰机构Markit周三公布的数据显示，美国12月MARKIT综合PMI初值持平于11月的56.2。若数字在50上方，则表明经济活动扩张。
3.美国商务部(DOC)周三公布的数据显示，美国11月新屋开工总数年化为109.1万户，创2008年2月以来最高水平，预期95.5万户；美国11月新屋开工年化月率增长22.7%，录得1990年1月以来最大增幅。
后市展望：
日本三井住友银行(Mitsui)也赞同Teves的观点，其称，“由于缺乏基本面及技术面的支撑，多数投资者会把金价上扬看做是逢高做空的机会，同时空头的信心也十分坚定，空头回补还不足对他们造成打压。”
澳新银行(ANZ)表示，“尽管黄金ETF持仓持续外流，但1230水平附近还是能够获得亚洲实物金买家所提供的支撑。
花旗集团(Citi)期货分析师Sterling Smith周三称，“美联储缩减QE令市场感到一些意外，此前多数都预计美联储在明年3月前不会缩减QE。值得庆幸的是，黄金并没有继续跌破1200美元区域，暗示该区域支撑下方有较强劲的低吸买盘。”
加拿大皇家银行(RBC)贵金属策略师George Gero称，“美联储小幅缩减QE同样也暗示了美国经济复苏良好，未来通胀将逐步走强，支撑大宗商品重新上涨。”
Fed rate decision due on Wednesday announced it would purchase $ 85 billion of debt each month to reduce the size of $ 10 billion to $ 75 billion , New York City, spot gold fell nearly $ 20 intraday first , and then bounce back to around $ 1,235 , overall still slightly higher. Spot gold closed up . Spot gold rose $ 3.20 , or 0.25 percent, at $ 1,233 / oz.
Wednesday ( Dec. 18 ) Trend statement:
International spot gold continued in the period between the Asia-Pacific U.S. 1229-1237.20 narrow range. European time , the spot gold continued the previous shock pattern . Early New York session disc , spot gold extended gains and refresh days $ 1,244.20 / ounce high resolution rate fell nearly $ 20 after the announcement , and then bounce back to around $ 1,235 , closing at around that level .
Spot gold hit $ 1,244.20 / ounce , the lowest dropping $ 1,223.70 / ounce, compared with the previous trading day opened at $ 1,229.80 / oz , up $ 3.20 or 0.25 %, at $ 1,233 / oz.
Fundamentals of favorable factors :
1 Tuesday SPDR gold ETF holdings fell by 2.1 tonnes to 816.82 tonnes.
Fundamentals of negative factors :
1 Wednesday the Federal Reserve (Fed) after a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting after the announcement of the rate decision , the Fed announced it would purchase a monthly debt of $ 85 billion reduction in the size of $ 10 billion to $ 75 billion a month . And the Open Market Committee, at a ratio of 9:1 by the resolution.
2 data compiled institutions Markit released Wednesday showed U.S. December MARKIT composite PMI was unchanged at 56.2 in November . If the number is above 50 , it indicates that the expansion of economic activity .
(3) data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) released on Wednesday showed U.S. housing starts in November, as the total number of 1,091,000 , the highest since February 2008 the highest level , the www.xs9999hk.com/page-2.htmlexpected 955,000 ; U.S. November housing starts rate increase of 22.7% , recorded the largest increase since January 1990 .
Expectation:
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (Mitsui) also endorsed the view Teves , which said, " due to lack of fundamentals and technical support , and most investors will gold price rallies seen as an opportunity , but also very firm faith bears , lack of short-covering also caused them to suppress . "
ANZ Bank (ANZ) , said , "Despite the continued outflow of gold ETF positions , but was able to get near the 1230 level of support provided by Asian buyers of physical gold .
Citigroup (Citi) futures analyst Sterling Smith said Wednesday , " Fed QE the market was down some unexpected , most of them had expected in March next year before the Fed will not cut QE. Fortunately , gold does not continue to fall below 1200 U.S. regions , suggesting that the region has relatively strong support bargain-hunting buying underneath . "
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) precious metals strategist George Gero said , "The Fed slightly reduced QE also implies that the U.S. economic recovery is good, future inflation will gradually strengthen, support commodities rise again ."
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