中国强劲增长的时代已经过去？(转载)
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Days ofrobust China growth over? What's worrying global investors
中国强劲增长的时代已经过去？全球投资者在担忧什么
NEWDELHI: Adding to an 18-month low GDP growth rate, China, the world's secondlargest economy, has witnessed a slew of other disappointing economicindicators - signalling a worrying slowdown for the country.
新德里：全球第二大经济体中国正面临18个月以来的最低增长率，一系列经济指标令人失望——这不禁让人们担心中国的经济增长正在走下坡路。
After clocking double-digit growth rates on average over the last threedecades, China's economy has slowed as the government repositions itto rely more on domestic demand. Economists predict a 7.3 percent averagegrowth rate for China this year, which would be the slowest expansion since1990, and a further cooling to 7.2 percent in 2015.
过去30年，中国GDP平均以两位数增长，随着政府将经济增长点重新定位在国内需求上，中国经济增长正在减缓。经济学家预测中国今年的GDP增长率将达到7.3%，这将是1990年以来最低的增长点。2015年经济增长预测是7.2%。
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has also flagged concerns on 'growingfinancial risks' in China. "We now see an increased likelihood that theChinese authorities may address the financial sector risks sooner rather thanlater. Under our baseline scenario, the fallout from such an event will becontained; but in a downside scenario the transition to a more risk-basedfinancial system, including the reduction in moral hazard, could be disorderly," Standard &Poor's Asia-Pacific chief economist Paul Gruenwald has said.
评级机构标准普尔公司也对中国不断“增加的金融风险”表示出了担忧。“我们看到中国当局将更可能以更快的速度解决金融领域的风险。在我们所假定的基准情景中，金融风险爆发的可能性将得到限制；但是在另外不利的情景中，在转向以风险为基础的金融系统的过程中（包括道德危机的减少），将可能是杂乱无章的，”标准普尔的亚太首席经济学家如是说。
What remains more of an unknown is how China will manage to ease itself off acredit-fuelled investment binge since the financial crisis hit and how well itwill deal with the overhang and subsequent pressure on asset prices.
然而更加未知的是中国将如何成功放缓以信贷刺激为驱动力的投资狂潮，以及中国将如何处理商品过剩以及随之而来的资产价格压力。
In particular, investors have grown worried over a credit bubble in the countryand what the Chinese monetary authorities may do to combat it. One outcome ofthis has been a marked fall in the value of the country's currency, the yuan,against the dollar.
特别是，投资者对中国的信贷泡沫以及中国货币当局将如何处理表示越发的担心。导致的其中一个结果就是中国人民币对比美元贬值。
The yuanhas depreciated 3.1 percent versus the dollar so far this year after the PBOCguided the currency weaker starting in mid-January, which traders andeconomists said was a move to deter speculators from betting on a one-wayappreciation.
从一月中旬中国人民银行采取措施贬损人民币以来，人民币对美元已经贬值了3.1%，交易员和经济学家认为此举是为了阻止投机者单向的货币升值投机。
The PBOC never said it was deliberately pushing the yuan down, but currencydealers said they suspected the drop was driven primarily by China's "BigFour" state-owned banks, who started buying up dollars in the domesticforeign exchange market at the central bank's behest. But the central bank hasmore recently no longer intervened to depress the yuan.
中国人民银行从不承认自己是在故意贬值人民币，但是货币交易人员认为是中国四大国有银行在推动人民币贬值，在央行的命令下，这四家国有银行在国内外汇市场上大量购买美元。但是央行最近已经不再为了压抑人民币而对市场进行干涉了。
Adding to the concerns renowned investors GeorgeSoros and Bill Gross have said that the China situation is similar tothe US crisis in 2008.
更让人感到担忧的是著名投资者乔治索罗斯和比尔格罗斯说中国现在的情况就好比美国2008年的金融危机。
China's factory activity shrank for the fourth straight month in April, showingeconomic weakness into the second quarter, a preliminary survey showed onrecently, although the pace of decline eased helped by policy steps to arrestthe slowdown. The HSBC/Markit flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Aprilrose to 48.3 from March's final reading of 48.0, but was still below the 50line separating expansion from contraction.
最近的一项初步调查显示，到四月为止，中国制造业连续4个月下滑，表明第二季度中国经济仍显脆弱，尽管有关政策放缓了下降的速度。在汇丰银行和市场研究机构马基特的采购经理人指数中，中国从三月份的48上升到四月份的48.，但依然低于50%的基准线。
Analysts see initial signs of stabilisation in the economy due to thegovernment's targeted measures to underpin growth, but believe more policysupport may be needed as structural reforms put additional pressure onactivity.
由于政府对维持经济增长出台了针对性的措施，所以分析者看到了中国经济趋于稳定的迹象，但是他们认为随着结构性改革对生产活动施加了额外的压力，政府将需要提供更多的政策支持。
On their part, policymakers in Beijing are unperturbed and say the modest slowdownis as expected and will continue. Signs of a slowdown in the first quarter hadbeen evident in a series of economic indicators, prompting the government tounveil a series of measures to promote growth, although it has ruled out majorstimulus.
而中国的政策制定者们似乎不为所动，他们认为适当的经济放缓是正常的，而且还将持续下去。一系列的指标都表明第一季度的经济增长在放缓，促使政府采取一系列措施来促进增长，尽管其中并没有包括一些重大的刺激计划。
Mainland investor confidence has taken a further hit after state media reportedcomments from Xi Jinping at a politburo meeting, saying that current fiscal andmonetary policies would basically remain unchanged.
习在一次政治局会议上的讲话再一次打击了大陆投资者的信心，他说目前的财政和货币政策将基本保持不变。
"I think the language he used and the overall content in the speech wasbelow what people had expected," said Du Changchun, an analyst atNortheast Securities in Shanghai.
“我觉得他使用的语言以及整个讲话的内容都低于人们的预估，”上海东北证券的分析师杜长春如是说。
"If there's no change in basic economic policy then it's likely therewon't be any strong measures, and overall this is dragging onexpectations."
“如果基本经济政策不变，那么就不会出现强有力的措施，总之，这是在拖延人们的期望值。”
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原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：龙腾翻译总管 转载请注明出处
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balasesham (Hyderabad)
IS IndiaReady???????
印度准备好了吗？？？？
kbiotech05(Beijing)
Chinarising and will continue to rise not just in the high rise building businessbut in every area of business sector. Reporting from Beijing and havingattended a conference in Dalian, I have to disagree with the authors of thisarticle. China is about to boom in the biotech and biopharmaceutical sector andcontinue to perform well in other sectors. It has momentum and has a drive tosucceed and the 1.3 + billion population of consumers. It is a place wherethings are happening and happening with clock work precision.
中国崛起，而且将继续崛起，不仅仅是在高层建筑领域，而是所有领域和部门。我人在北京，而且在大连参加过一个会议，我不同意这篇文章作者的观点。中国生物科技和生物医药领域将会非常繁荣，而且在其他领域也将表现良好。中国有的是动力和冲劲，而且还有13亿人口的消费者，中国的一切都在变化。
freddie (Germany) replies to kbiotech05
7 Hours ago
well donedecision by Chinese government to reduce growth a bit,it reduces inflationrate, too and it is even a good decision of Chinas government to be focus ofenviroment...like water managemant, solar and wind energy,eletrical cars,energy savings buildings.Your leaders are smart. Yes,I agree with you Kbiotech,no reasons to be worried.
中国政府采取措施减缓经济发展速度，降低通货膨胀率，以及把焦点放在环境保护上，这些方面中国政府都做的非常好，比如水资源管理，太阳能和风能，电动汽车，节省能源的建筑。你们的领导人很聪明。楼上的，我同意你的看法，根本没有担心的必要。
sairam (hyderabad)
india'srobust growth will start very soon
印度的强劲增长即将开始。
A. S.Mathew (U.S.A.)
12 Hours ago
ChineseGDP would be declining further since the world recovery is not solid at all butonly in the paper. The disappearing middle class in the U.S. will be forced tocurtail a lot of consumption from x to y, mainly made in China. Likewise thenew Ukraine game will create economic havoc in Eastern and Western Europeannations, if not solved at the earliest. Their consumption of Chinese goodswould be decelerating. The world-wide economy is precisely in a stagnation dueto the multiple winds blowing, so the 2nd richest nation with the No 1 exporterand importer would be caught up in a great economic question.
由于世界经济的恢复并不稳固，所以中国的GDP也将继续受到影响。美国不断消失的中产阶级将不得不控制自己对一系列产品的消费，而这些产品主要来自中国。还有，如果不尽快解决乌克兰危机，将给东西欧经济带来不利影响。所以中国的出口将会受到影响。因多种因素的影响，世界经济正处于停滞状态，所以对世界第二富有以及第一大进出口国的中国来说，也是不容乐观的。
AdvManoj Ambat (Palakkad, Kerala, India)
A goldenopportunity for India. It is time for some catching up to do. Another factorthat will be in India's favour will be down sizing of the defence expenditurein China that will slow down their development of newer weapons systems and ina way will be good news for India and India also starts upgrade of our defenceforces with an eye on countering China in the long run.
这对印度来说是个好机会。现在是时候要开始追赶了。如果中国的国防开支能够减少那对印度来说也将是有益的，因为这样一来中国就延缓了新武器系统的开发，所以对印度来说是好的。印度也开始升级自己的防卫力量，目的是为了长远的对抗中国。
Morgan(Australia) replies to Adv Manoj Ambat
Whilst Iagree that India should seize this (and every) opportunity, it has a long wayto go to catch up; more importantly, before focusing on defense, India needs tofocus on it's industries, education and infrastructure.
虽然我也觉得印度应该抓住这次机会，但是要想追上中国，那还有很长一段路要走；更重要的是，印度在关注国防之前，应该好好关注一下国内的工业、教育以及基础设施建设。
NarinderSharma (Ambala) replies to Morgan
At lessthan 2% of GDP strengthening defense is the least of the political prioritiesof India. We are spending many times that on social upliftment of the masses.The focus unfortunately is short term and wasteful. That must & will cahngesoon - they have no option.
印度军费开支还不到GDP的2%，所以加强防卫可以说是印度最不重要的优先选项了。我们把更多的钱花在了提高大众福利事业上。只可惜这样的投资是短期的而且也不经济。一定要改变这种现状，他们没有选择。
joommen_2001Oommen (Trivandrum)
chinaslowing is good news for india
中国经济放缓对印度来说是好事。
bculasbculas (Tiruchendur India)
China'sgrowth has slowed down but that is not good news for the rest of the world
中国经济增长开始放缓，但对全世界来说这不是什么好事情。
swagger144(Earth)
Theglobal investors always wants bubbles and speculations..
全球投资者需要的就是泡沫和投机。
NarinderSharma (Ambala)
TheChinesegrwoth model was a big balloon all these years. It has finally caught upwith them. Good, now India will start moving !!
多年来，中国经济增长模式就是个大气球，现在这个大气球终于赶上他们了。很好，现在印度可以开始向前了！！
Morgan(Australia) replies to Narinder Sharma
LOL - youmake is sound as if it was China that stopped India from investing ininfrastructure, or that it was China that prevented India from reforming it's outdatedland and labor laws.... no, that had nothing to do with China and everything todo with politics in India.
哈哈，笑死了，你的意思好像在说中国阻止印度投资于自己的基础设施建设，或者是中国阻止印度对过时的土地和劳动法律进行改革，不是的，这和中国半毛钱关系没有，只和印度国内的政治相关。
NarinderSharma replies to Morgan
Underinvoicing their products and living off the promise of false profits thisdownswing was being predicted by Indian economists since 2010. With foreigninvestment constantly chasing growth and profits the only option is India.Reforms in India are inevitable.
故意低于实际价值虚开发票并且依赖于不义之财，这样的经济下降趋势2010年开始就被印度经济学家预测到了。外国投资者追求的是经济增长和利润，所以现在唯一的选择是印度。印度的改革不可避免。
S o o r ya (DSM) replies to Narinder Sharma
yes thereis a chance for India to enter in to the gap. mean time Govt also may change
是啊，印度有机会来补上这个缺口，但是政府要做出改变。
arifullakhanKhan (Bangalore)
Other countriesshould be careful so that China's economy should not affect them
其他国家要当心点，不要被中国经济影响到。
swagger144(Earth) replies to arifullakhan Khan
I believeIndia is not so connected with China as it is with USA and thus its fall willnot affect India..
我认为中印经济关系不像中美经济关系那么紧密，所以中国的衰退不会影响到印度。
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